Giants at Chiefs picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for “Monday Night Football” in week 8
The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants will lose in NFL Week 8 when the two clubs face off in Monday Night Football. It’s been a very unusual start to the season for the Chiefs, who come into this game under .500-3-4 and are away to watch the playoffs. They are also looking to bounce back from a Week 7 loss to Tennessee, where Patrick Mahomes and the offense were only able to score three points.
Meanwhile, New York comes off a win over Carolina, but Joe Judge’s side continued to fight injury to start the year. Two key attacking players have already been ruled out in this game at Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Golladay (knee), so Daniel Jones will need a few people to step up in their absence to move up to 3-5.
In this space, we will specifically look at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also be looking at a number of player props and showcasing our picks for how we see this prime-time game going.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Dated: Monday November 1 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Site: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Flux: fuboTV (try for free)
To follow: CBS Sports app
Chances: Heads -10, O / U 52
Kansas City Chiefs -10
That gap initially opened with the Chiefs almost as two TDs favorites at -13.5, but that advantage narrowed after their loss to Tennessee. That number dropped to -9.5 for the chefs, but sits at -10 on the eve of this head-to-head.
The choice: Giants +10. Kansas City has not been the team we have come to know in recent seasons and has struggled mightily on the defensive end of the ball. At the start of Week 8, the Chiefs are allowing 6.6 yards per game, which is the highest score in the NFL. I expect Mahomes and the offense to rebound after scoring just three points last week, but this defense leaves the back door wide open. The Chiefs are also 2-5 ATS this season, which is tied for second in the entire NFL.
Key trend: The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Over / Under total
Similar to the spread, the total for this game also declined over the week. It opened at 54 but quickly dropped to 52 late Sunday and has held steady at that number ever since.
The choice: Under 52 years old. That number seems a little high when you consider that New York will have lost several top weapons in attack and the fact that Kansas City continues to appear lost from top to bottom. In addition to the Chiefs who only managed three points last week, turnovers continue to be a problem for them as they have also given the ball three times. While the Giants have a solid clash against a poor defense from the Chiefs, their offense hasn’t really blown the clubs away and ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA.
Key trend: Under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games on Monday.
Accessories Patrick Mahomes
- Touchdown passes: 2.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Overtaking sites: 303.5 (over -115, under -115)
- Precipitation course: 19.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Overtime attempts: 37.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passage: 37.5 (over -115, under -115)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
Mahomes broke that accessory rushing yards in five straight games before Monday night and looks to be the strongest bet of that game. The Under on his 303.5-yard passing prop to -115 is also intriguing, as the Giants are allowing 243.1 passing yards per game this season. Mahomes has also only passed 300 yards passing three times this season at the start of Week 8.
Daniel Jones Accessories
- Who passed affected: 1.5 (Over +115, Under -145)
- Overtaking sites: 246.5 (over -115, under -115)
- Precipitation course: 21.5 (over -110, less than -120)
The pool of skill positions around Jones have been jostled for a while, but it looks like he gets Kadarius Toney (questionable, ankle) and Sterling Shepard (questionable, hamstring) back for this game after the two get together. trained on a limited basis most of the week. With that in mind, Jones should be able to pass his yards to -115. After all, the Chiefs are allowing 275.7 passing yards per game this season. Jones has also exceeded that accessory rushing yards in five of his seven games played this season.
Player accessories to consider
Mecole Hardman’s total receptions: Over 3.5 (-120). Hardman has played in about 65% of offensive snaps over the past three weeks and has seen some solid target share during that streak (22 targets total). He also caught at least four assists in the previous three games. As long as he continues on this trajectory, he will have a good chance of overtaking it.
Travis Kelce receiving yards total: Over 78.5 (-115). Kelce has received double-digit targets in four of his last five games and the Giants are allowing 9.2 yards per reception at the opposing tight ends this season. If Kelce continues to be Mahomes’ weapon of choice, he will take this step.